According to the general opinion of government regulators and economists, the world economy has passed the lower point of the downturn and is on the way to transition into a recovery phase with a more or less steady expansion of production, although the negative consequences of the financial and economic crisis are still far from being overcome. In the Singapore Statement of the Heads of State and Government of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) of November 15, 2009 "A new growth paradigm for a Unified Asia-Pacific Region in the Twenty-first Century "noted:" The global economy has begun a recovery process, with the Asia-Pacific region playing a leading role. " 1
If we consider the current crisis to be structural*, then the most likely scenario is the so-called L-shaped, i.e., a slow and sluggish exit from the global crisis, as opposed to a rapid V-shaped recovery or an equally rapid W-shaped double fall-the rise of the world economy. The Singapore Declaration emphasized that while " ... the vigorous response we have taken has created the basis for economic recovery... the recovery of the economy is not yet based on a solid foundation. " 2
The latest (October 2009) forecasts continue to support the L-shaped scenario, especially in the most developed economies (namely, China and a number of other transition and developing countries are focused on exports to these countries). Thus, according to experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2010 the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected in the United States at the rate of 1.5%, in Japan -1.7%, in the euro area - 0.3%, in the UK - 0.9% 3.
Nevertheless, this scenario also allows us to sum up the preliminary results of the struggle with the crisis of the largest Asian economies-China and India. These results show that both countries, thanks to the high stability of their economies and effective and timely anti-crisis measures, are generally successfully overcoming the negative impact of the gl ... Read more